Election “expert” predicts narrow Liberal Democrat victory in FABS

Houses of parliament/Westminster Palace, London [photo by Sir James; licence: cc/by-sa/3.0]

Local Liberal Democrats have been buoyed by the news that a well-known election prediction website is forecasting a narrow victory for their candidate in the Filton and Bradley Stoke (FABS) constituency.

The Electoral Calculus website, which claims to incorporate regional as well as national swings in its modelling, is currently predicting that Peter Tyzack (Liberal Democrat) will take the seat with a tiny 0.15% margin over Jack Lopresti (Conservative).

Mr Lopresti, however, remains the clear favourite with the bookmakers, although his odds have lengthened from an initial 1/6 to 1/2 [at Ladbrokes].

Mr Tyzack’s chances are now rated at 2/1, having been 6/1 at the start of the campaign.

Ladbrokes are currently offering 8/1 against Labour candidate Ian Boulton taking the seat, although significantly longer prices are available elsewhere [e.g. 29/1 on Betfair].

All eyes will now be on tonight’s third and final televised Prime Ministerial Debate (BBC1 8:30pm), which could prove decisive – both nationally and locally.

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  1. This is wonderful !

    With results like this my Labour party will be in power through a hung parliament and I can carry on making false promises, produce more stealth tax, ignore immigration and let the banks do what they want.

    Keep up the good work…..Gordon

  2. I not surprised that we’ve drifted into 2nd place as my policy to savagly cut public services were always going to be a problem to sell to the punters (sorry, general public).

    However, my rich friends (and I have quite a lot from my public school days) are very pleased to hear that they could be in for a windfall without having to pay any extra tax if I get elected. I’m just bloody annoyed that Nick Clegg bloke and his Lib Dems are doing so well.

    Keep fighting of a Fair Britain (No, sorry that’s the Lib Dem slogan)

    Vote for change (Cos that’s all the working classes will have in their pockets)


  3. Gordon,
    Is that not a ‘bigoted’ comment? I think you should drive to Journal HQ and spend the next hour saying how sorry you are.

  4. Gordon, Thanks for your contribution.

    However, I think David Cameron may have had something to do with the posting!

    There are many coalition governments in the world and they work well.

    My hope is that the Lib Dems hold a balance of power and are able to force a change of electoral system which will mean everyones vote counts. The current system is unfair and favours the 2 main parties which is why Cameron is unwilling to consider the possibility; he wants power to take down the country all on his own.

  5. The more those two debate their policies (sorry, squabble) the more they sound like credible politicians (sorry, the same).

    I’m so pleased the good people of Bradley Stoke are not foucsing on my lack of policy but instead are being won over by my gameshow host looks and remarkable talent of being able to look at a camera.

    With your help this time next week we will be able to join the Euro, hold an Amnesty for illegal imigrants and tax tax the middle classes to breaking point.

    All the Best

    Nick xxx

  6. Vote Conservative! oh no, wait… which party am I leader of? oh yes UKIP, Vote UKIP!
    I keep forgeting how these election thingys work what with being a Lord and all.

    Tally Ho and Toodle Pip

    Lord Pearson

  7. UPDATE: Following the third Prime Ministerial Debate, the Electoral Calculus website is now predicting a Conservative victory in FABS by a margin of 1.73%.

  8. As FABS is probably one of the more interesting constituencies in this election, being one of the few three-way marginals, I’m surprised there hasn’t been a local poll here by one of the nationals. I’m not sure the model that Electoral Calculus uses is much better than UNS in this scenario. I know posters in windows aren’t the most scientific bellweather, but there are definite clumps of supporting material around the constituency – I noticed Winterbourne seems to be very keen on Jack Lopresti, with Peter Tyzack taking the lion’s share in Hambrook/Frenchay/Downend. I’ve seen one Labour suppoter in Stoke Gifford, but I must confess Bradley Stoke seems clutter-free, electioneering-wise!

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