The Bradley Stoke Journal

Local Liberal Democrats have been buoyed by the news that a well-known election prediction website is forecasting a narrow victory for their candidate in the Filton and Bradley Stoke (FABS) constituency.

The Electoral Calculus website, which claims to incorporate regional as well as national swings in its modelling, is currently predicting that Peter Tyzack (Liberal Democrat) will take the seat with a tiny 0.15% margin over Jack Lopresti (Conservative).

Mr Lopresti, however, remains the clear favourite with the bookmakers, although his odds have lengthened from an initial 1/6 to 1/2 [at Ladbrokes].

Mr Tyzack’s chances are now rated at 2/1, having been 6/1 at the start of the campaign.

Ladbrokes are currently offering 8/1 against Labour candidate Ian Boulton taking the seat, although significantly longer prices are available elsewhere [e.g. 29/1 on Betfair].

All eyes will now be on tonight’s third and final televised Prime Ministerial Debate (BBC1 8:30pm), which could prove decisive – both nationally and locally.

Related links:

• Election leaflets delivered in FABS (The Straight Choice)
• Latest news from the FABS candidates (The Journal)

Voters in the new Filton and Bradley Stoke constituency will have a choice of eight candidates when they go the polls on Thursday 6th May.

Previously announced Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green, UKIP and BNP candidates have now been joined by Ruth Johnson of The Christian Party and ‘Mr Vote Zero-None-Of-The-Above‘ (formerly known as Eric Mutch).

The Electoral Register closed yesterday but already-registered persons can still make an application for proxy voting until 5pm on Tuesday 27th April.

Bradley Stoke’s polling stations will be at Brook Way Activity Centre, Jubilee Centre, Holy Trinity Church, Baileys Court Activity Centre, Bradley Stoke Evangelical Church, St Mary’s Primary School and Church of Christ the King.

Counting of votes for the whole constituency will take place at Bradley Stoke Leisure Centre and will begin “as soon as is practicable after 10pm on the day of poll”, according to South Gloucestershire Council (SGC).

Related links:

• Filton and Bradley Stoke – General Election 2010 (The Journal)
• Election Information (SGC)

Candidates of the three main political parties are to be quized later this week at an Election Forum organised by local churches.

The Stokes and Patchway Churches group has organised the event to allow local Christians to meet the General Election candidates and “listen to them answer questions on key policy areas”.

Members of each Church have been asked to submit questions in advance on a range of topics that includes: the economy, global terrorism, climate change, family breakdown, race & immigration, religious freedom and morality.

The event takes place at the Church of Christ the King, Mautravers Close, Bradley Stoke, on Thursday 22nd April – starting at 7:30pm.

Chris Rowell of Bridge Community  Church told The Journal that the forum is open to the general public, although he cautioned that the event would be centred around pre-submitted questions and there might not be an opportunity to raise additional issues on the night.

Photos (L-R): Ian Boulton (Labour), Jack Lopresti (Conservative), Peter Tyzack (Liberal Democrat).

Related link:

• Bradley Stoke Election Forum (Bridge Community Church)
• Filton and Bradley Stoke – General Election 2010 (The Journal)

Peter Tyzack, Liberal Democrat candidate for Filton and Bradley Stoke (FABS), called into town on Saturday on a charity walk spanning the breadth of the constituency that he hopes to represent in the next parliament.

The event, ambitiously titled ‘Walk to Westminster’, saw Mr Tyzack set off from Severn Beach at 9am and arrive at Staple Hill by 2:40pm – after passing through Pilning, Easter Compton, Cribss Causeway, Patchway, Bradley Stoke, Frenchay, and Downend.

Some elements of the media are said to have called FABS the ‘mystery constutuency’ because people don’t relate to the name. Prior to embarking on the walk, Mr Tyzack said:

“We are finding residents who insist that they are not part of Filton or Bradley Stoke, so the intention of the walk is to draw attention to the extent of the constituency by walking from one end to the other. My hope is that the media will show a map to help the voters identify with the new area that they are part of. I hope to meet and talk with residents along the way.”

Mr Tyzack was accompanied on the walk by his daughter Rowena and, for the first mile out of Severn Beach, Steve Webb MP.

The walkers made a collection for Bristol Haematology & Oncology Centre’s CaRE appeal along the way.

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With an announcement of the date of the General Election seemingly just days away, The Journal takes a look at how the main political parties have been building up their campaigns in the fight for the new Filton and Bradley Stoke (FABS) constituency.

The last few days have seen the first election leaflets dropping on doormats in Bradley Stoke. In case they haven’t reached your street yet, here’s a quick summary of what the main candidates have to say:

Edition 5 of Labour’s FaBs News sees candidate Ian Boulton promising to support local businesses and jobs. There is criticism of “Tory plans to cut child tax credits” and praise for Labour’s record on policing (“crime down by a third since 1997″).

Mr Boulton has nothing specific to say about Bradley Stoke but tells readers of his work on a regeneration project in Staple Hill and his position as a governor of Patchway Community College.

Conservative candidate Jack Lopresti’s newspaper, “delivered and produced at no cost to the taxpayer”, contains mostly articles on national issues such as “controlling immigration”, “help for working families” and “supporting pensioners”.

Mr Lopresti praises South Gloucestershire Council for “pushing through the lowest council tax rise ever” and welcomes “record investment” in repairing the district’s roads.

At a local level, Mr Lopresti is pictured at the Willow Brook Centre selling poppies for the British Legion.

The Liberal Democrats’ Focus paper is fronted by their FABS candidate Peter Tyzack, standing beside his “newly decorated car” at the Willow Brook Centre.

The bulk of the paper concerns itself with Town Council issues (youth work, health provision and road safety) but there are also mentions of national “policy points” – plans to bring empty homes back into use and raising the threshold at which income tax becomes payable.

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The British National Party (BNP) has announced that it is to contest the Filton and Bradley Stoke (FABS) parliamentary seat at the upcoming General Election.

The news, which the BNP claims will “shock the party’s opponents”, was revealed in a posting on the far-right party’s website on Saturday (13th March).

The article names “lifelong Bristol resident” David Scott as the party’s prospective candidate for FABS.

Mr Scott is said to have seen active service with the local County Infantry Regiment and his children “have all attended South Gloucestershire Schools”.

Other minority parties to have recently announced prospective candidates for FABS are The Green Party with Lon Lucas, and the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) with Neil Dowdney.

The campaigns of the main party candidates have so far had little visibility in Bradley Stoke, with as yet no party leaflets arriving at Journal HQ and no presence at events held in the town. If we have missed something, please leave a comment to let us know!

Ian Boulton (Labour) has been the most active candidate in the online media, with regular updates on Twitter and, since yesterday, a video entitled “Local Roots, Local Knowledge” on YouTube.

The Liberal Democrats have renamed their local party website the “Peter Tyzack” site, where the latest article promises smaller class sizes for South Gloucestershire schools. Elsewhere, Mr Tyzack has been critical of South Gloucestershire Council, which he says hasn’t cleared rubbish from the Gloucester Road (A38) in Patchway since the Conservatives took control in 2007.

The Conservative’s Jack Lopresti, hot favorite for the FABS seat, prefers to boast about the achievements of South Gloucestershire Council on his personal website – with articles about cuts in bus funding imposed by the Labour government and the district’s recently announced “lowest ever” Council Tax rise.

More info: 2010 General Election in Filton and Badley Stoke