Conservatives odds on to take Filton and Bradley Stoke in General Election

Houses of parliament/Westminster Palace, London [photo by Sir James; licence: cc/by-sa/3.0]Bradley Stoke is likely to represented by a Conservative MP after this year’s General Election if odds recently published by Ladbrokes prove accurate.

The bookmaker has installed the Conservative candidate for the new parliamentary constituency of Filton and Bradley Stoke as the 1/6 favourite.

The Liberal Democrats are second in the betting at 6/1, followed by Labour at 10/1.

Bradley Stoke is currently covered by the two parliamentary constituencies of Bristol North West, represented by Doug Naysmith (Labour Co-operative), and Northavon, represented by Steve Webb (Liberal Democrat).

Boundary changes which come into effect at the General Election put the whole of the town in the new constituency of Filton and Bradley Stoke, which also includes Almondsbury, Downend, Patchway, Pilning, Severn Beach, Staple Hill, Stoke Gifford and Winterbourne.

The prospective candidates of the three main parties are:

  • Ian Boulton (Labour)
  • Jack Lopresti (Conservative)
  • Peter Tyzack (Liberal Democrat)

Related links:

Share this page:


  1. Thank you so much! Until now one could say without equivocation that the Filton & Bradley Stoke seat is a very close 3-way marginal(BBC and Evening Post agree). Now your erstwhile respected Journal appears to be taking sides, on the basis of gambling odds! Surely the interest of a bookie in setting his odds is to make a profit for himself, so hardly a reliable indicator of how the residents might vote once they have taken the trouble to find out about the individuals who will be standing. The people of Bradley Stoke deserve better than to be treated like mere punters in this way.
    Perhaps you will undertake to run an objective ‘go-compare’ page on your website, and let the people decide who they really prefer on the basis of facts not conjecture.?

  2. Peter – thanks for taking the time to leave a comment on The Journal.

    Sorry, but I can’t agree that we are “taking sides” by publishing this story – it’s entirely factual and without editorial comment.

    Bookmakers do get things wrong, but since the odds are (in theory) determined by market forces, it is not unreasonable to interpret them as a valid indicator.

    As you infer, the odds offered by Ladbrokes reflect the views of political pundits rather than the voters on the street.

    We will, of course, be giving equal attention to any similar “indicators” that become available as the local General Election campaigns evolve.

    P.S. We already have a “go-compare” page on The Journal – the link to it was included at the bottom of the article.

  3. Are the 6/1 odds offered on the Lib Dems winning the seat or are the odds personal to this week’s candidate?

    If I back Peter to win I don’t want to loose my stake when he abandons us like his two predecessors.

  4. It’s interesting to see the odds indicating that the Liberal Democrats have a better chance of winning than Labour.

    This must be a real blow to the Conservatives who keep saying it’s a “2 horse race” between them and Labour. Is it likely they’ll now change their story? No, despite the facts the Conservatives will keep pedelling the same old rubbish.

    Good luck Peter – The local candidate long before he was chosen to fight the seat.

  5. The reason it has always been down as a 2 horse race, was that neither the Conservative or Labour candidate knew if the Liberal candidate of the week would still be standing by the time they had printed their campaign literature and had it delivered. It also seems a bit sad that Peter Tyzack, in his first post, has a go at the editor, who like Chris from the BSE, has always reported the news from a neutral stand-point. Stating the odds, is hardly taking sides, will he as a result of the ‘poor publicity’ abandon the race, like the two previous liberal nominations.

  6. Mark Forsyth and Potential Pundit mock but should be concerned too. The reality at the GE could well be that the electorate like the sound of a well proven candidate with a substantial track record for the local community rather than the others who have very little to offer.

  7. Well I agree with Dave that Mr Lapresti has little track record in representing a large community. Though the Tory machine makes him appear otherwise.

    Parish council experience is ok (Ian is a parish councillor I believe) but the experience Peter Tyzack has had as a South Glos councillor (and on Northavon before that) looks pretty substantial – he currently chairs Planning I think.

    Peter Tyzack is also Chair of the Severn Estuary Partnership which will have an important voice in determining national energy policy affecting Oldbury and the Barrage scheme.

  8. Gary,
    I see you point to Jack Lopresti as having little experience, does 8 years as a Bristol City Councillor representing Stockwood (pop about 11,000) not count then, or is your definition of a large community, a big area sparsley populated, such as Pilning and Severn Beach (pop about 3,500). Might I also ask why at last nights local election, the Conservative vote was up 21%, Liberals down 8%, with an overall swing from Liberal to Conservative of 15%. Maybe the Bookies have got it right after all.

  9. Mark
    I wouldn’t make too much of Jack’s time as a councillor on Bristol. There are rumours he had a very poor attendance record!

  10. And so it starts! The phoney election campaign that has been raging in Westminster since MPs returned from their Christmas break has well and truly reached our glorious town and erupted on the Journal comments page.

    And why not? There is after all a lot at stake, the chance to be the first MP for Filton and Bradley Stoke is a significant prize and whoever it is, we shouldn’t forget that he or she will put BS firmly on the national political map and that this should be applauded by all.

    So for all local political observers then, the coming weeks will certainly be exciting and I’m sure there will be mud slinging from all sides, if not from the candidates themselves, then from their attack dogs seeking a bit of attention to raise their own profiles ahead of the local elections next year.

    No surprises then that attack poodle extraordinaire Jon Williams is first out of the trap for the Lib Dems, openly admitting that he is spreading rumours.

    Tory Labrador Mark is courting the media, wagging his tail and applauding neutral journalism that confirms his side as favourites and even the lesser spotted local labour sausage dog is getting in on the act.

    Who’ll be next? UKIP’s British Bulldog or the Green’s rescued mongrel?
    Where will it end? Will the Tories claim best in show?
    And How long can I keep this analogy going?

    All questions to be answered as election fever grips the nation!

  11. A potentially libelous sentence within Wolfhound’s comment of 12th Feb has been deleted, at the request of Jon Williams. I would have liked to have discussed this with Wolfhound, but the email address he/she supplied was invalid. Under UK law, the publisher of a website can apparently be sued for allowing libelous comments by a third party – a risk that I’m not prepared to take. Related link: The Libel Reform Campaign

  12. It would appear that our prospective candidates and their supporters need a few sessions at puppy school where they can learn the basics of how to behave in public. This mud-slinging is childish and unneccessary. How are the younger members of our community expected to behave in a mature and sensible manner when our community leaders insist on behaving like spoilt children telling tales on each other? My vote will go to the candidate who behaves with dignity, maturity and wisdom.

  13. Thank you to Barbara who undoubtedly has a point.

    Is there any mileage in inviting each of the 3 main candidates to provide an election address? The voting public can have a look at what each candidate is promising for the area and where they stand on national issues e.g. taxation.

    Jon W

  14. For me it’s quite simple the MP who can guarantee to drag our dial up broadband into the 21st century and sort out the carnage that is thousands of Bradley Stoke-ites trying to get onto the motorway of a morning gets my vote, and that of most people I know I would imagine.

    Or I may just vote for Pete because he was my CDT teacher and a thoroughly nice bloke 🙂

Comments are closed.