The closely-fought battle for the newly-created constituency of Filton and Bradley Stoke (FABS) has seen Jack Lopresti (Conservative) edge back into a small lead, according to the Electoral Calculus website.
The political prediction website had previously given Liberal Democrat candidate Peter Tyzack a tiny 0.15% lead – on the back of the national ‘Clegg Effect’, which peaked after the second televised Prime Ministerial Debate.
The latest figures, compiled on 2nd May, predict a 2.88% victory for Mr Lopresti.
A similar change has been reflected in the odds offered by bookmakers Ladbrokes, with Mr Lopresti shortening to 2/5, Mr Tyzack lengthening to 5/2 and Ian Boulton (Labour) also lengthening to 10/1 (but as long as 41/1 on Betfair).
The Bristol Evening Post still sees the seat as a three-way marginal but The Guardian reckons that the ‘Glegg Effect’ may have turned the contest into a two horse race [PDF, 715KB] with Labour supporters “facing a tough decision” that could swing the result either way.
The Bradley Stoke Journal will be reporting live from the count at Bradley Stoke Leisure Centre on Thursday night.
More information: FABS General Election (The Journal)
